Thursday, 14 February 2008

2003_06_08_bgbg_archive



Terry Semel, conducted by Kara Swisher, and Sergey Brin and Larry

Page, conducted by Walt Mossberg, at D: All Things Digital. As with

all my conference notes (wherever, whenever), please don't mistake

these jottings for a verbatim transcript or a complete portrayal. They

are necessarily paraphrased and incomplete, and the product of my

highly selective and imperfect notice and attention.

Terry Semel

Swisher: There have been some remarkable changes at Yahoo since you

came on board. (Mentions articles that initially expressed skepticism

about Semel's suitability for the role.)

Semel: For me, it was time for a life change. I examined things,

invested in some Internet related things. I wanted to be involved with

a business that had great products. I was attracted to Yahoo because

it was the best brand on the Internet, and it had a huge audience.

There are now some 112 million active registered users.

Swisher: What is Yahoo now?

Semel: That's a very simplistic question. Not sure if there is an

answer. Some people would refer to Yahoo as a portal, or a platform,

or a network. Probably it's the most relevant place to come for

anything you want. The premise is if services and products are great,

you'll spend more and more time there. It's not just search, travel,

sports, or finance, but getting more personalized, so you the user can

design what you want when you want it.

Swisher: Is it a media company?

Semel: I'm surprised you'd use such a traditional word, but it fits if

you like.

Swisher: (Asks about Yahoo's success in maintaining advertising

revenue.)

Semel: Yahoo's advertising sales now exceed AOL's. Traditional

advertising required a lot of handholding. You're starting to see more

creative advertising, more use of rich media. Some similarities to TV

advertising, but there will be great differences. Broadcast television

remains the most effective way to reach the masses. The Internet is

the second most effective. In the last year we've seen an enormous

change of attitude on both sides. We have a much deeper list of

clients starting to believe they're getting their money's worth. We

have seen growth for five quarters in a row in our traditional

advertising business.

Swisher: (Asks about sponsored search.)

Semel: Sponsored search is auction oriented, very effective for small

and medium sized businesses. Works well for all three sides: the

advertiser, Yahoo, and the user. Yahoo still is committed to pure

search, but users find it a little more organized and relevant when

they're getting a "recommendation." It's like the yellow pages.

There's a stronger temptation to go to a company you've heard of with

a big ad.

Swisher: Let's talk about premium services and extras. There's no

proof people want to buy these things. What do you think?

Semel: Look at the track records in other fields, like cable

television. People are accustomed to spending money for certain

things. Conservatively, 50% of AOL users are regular Yahoo users.

Yahoo is essentially "free" to them, so maybe they're willing to pay

for certain basic extra services (extra email storage, centralized

data access). Yahoo is co-branding with SBC to provide access and

services. There's not a single doubt in my mind that people are

getting accustomed to paying for certain specific services or

products, while still getting certain quality services for free. If we

continue to improve the quality of our free services, they will

support the pay services, and vice versa. We thought it was important

to offer access to listings for personals, jobs and real estate. We

decided we needed to buy the jobs segment and personalize it. In the

case of personals, we decided we can build it in house and do it

really well, but I gave it an advertising budget of zero. The goal was

to become #2 in that market with no advertising beyond our own

network.

Swisher: What about entertainment? (Mentions AOL, People Magazine

online.) As a content maker, what do you think of that happening? What

about music?

Semel: 10-11 million people use Yahoo's Music Launch service. There

have been 125 million music videos downloaded. Music can and will be

successful in its own right. So many people use the 'Net to legally

listen to the music they want. There are music clubs. These are

perfect examples of the kind of extra services people will pay for.

Swisher: (Asks about whether the music industry will cooperate with

online services to give users what they want.)

Semel: As former chairman of one of the five major labels, I see a

shift in attitude. The tone used to be, "let's sue them." The industry

has done a good job moving away from this. What Steve Jobs has

accomplished in obtaining cross-licensing is great. As times change,

repackaging and repricing make the most sense. [I missed a bit

here...] They're going too slowly though. Now is the time to bring the

Internet in, before it becomes too late. The industry should get

involved sooner rather than later.

Audience Questions for Semel

Audience member: Jack Warner once cautioned the movie industry not to

sell to TV. The result was to encourage innovation in the new medium.

Will this happen on the Internet?

Semel: I'm a total believer in the changed medium. Things start out

looking like what you're used to, you begin by slicing and dicing

what's there. HBO started by broadcasting movies, then moved on to do

its own series and other things. The Internet too will begin with

slicing and dicing what we've seen before, but that won't be the big

killer app. That's going to be original hits that take advantage of

the unique aspects of the Internet, and they'll be very different from

what we usually see. Music, games. Companies like Yahoo have enormous

communities, posting and talking to each other all the time. There's

no doubt the Internet will become a major vehicle for games, all over

the world. If all you do is copy what came before, you're going to

look like an old newspaper. These new ideas could come from Hollywood,

but they're just as likely to come from users.

Audience member: Is there a role for Yahoo in convergence, everything

coming into the home through one box?

Semel: Yes, it's important to deliver what you want, where and when

you want it.

Audience member: Yahoo's cash position is huge. Are you thinking about

media properties, your own programming? Semel: Yahoo has north of 2

billion cash right now. Three years out, broadband will be in 50% of

households, and more and better content and programming will do well.

We don't need a studio now, but we'll be involved in helping people

who are doing things we feel are good for the Internet. HBO started

out with 100% licensed content, now probably 50% of what they offer is

original. And they're thriving.

David Kirkpatrick (from Fortune): Will traditional media throttle

Internet content? (Referencing things like Diller's HSN.)

Semel: On the Internet, anyone with a good idea can do it tomorrow.

Individuals can and do create stuff. It's much more open to the

creation of thriving businesses. The Internet world offers another

opportunity to reach masses. As a citizen I worry about countries

where one person controls the whole thing. The Internet helps,

generally speaking doesn't take positions on issues.

Larry Page and Sergey Brin

Mossberg: You've created great technology that works, but you're sort

of the oddball in the search industry. Take sponsored search results.

You don't do that.

Page: We've taken a hard line on that. Our search results are the best

things we can produce. You can tell our advertising is advertising.

It's even more evil when you can't tell if a result comes up because

of paid inclusion.

Mossberg: I think this is one of the best things about Google. But

from a business point of view, you're not a public company. Why would

someone buy a Google ad?

Brin: It's important to us and the users that ads be identified as

ads. We think it makes them more effective. (Gives example of

purchasing a green laser pointer from one of Google's advertisers.)

The ads themselves work well. They're a good revenue stream for Google

and for the advertisers. In fact, the ads work so well they're being

run on non-search properties, like the Knight Ridder sites. Instead of

having a flashy banner you'll see a set of text links, related to the

news story you're reading. It's not a perfect product; sometimes you

have unfortunate subject-ad pairings--headline, "Boy drowns in washing

machine," next to a washing machine ad.

Mossberg: How do you guys make any money?

Page: We license our search technology to other sites, and to the

enterprise market. Advertising is a very large source of revenue as

well.

Mossberg: What about the simplicity of the ads, why is that important?

Page: We felt like banner ads slowed down our sites and weren't

relevant. The click-through rates on the search-relevant text ads are

much higher.

Mossberg: There are companies that are pissed off at you guys because

you've become the gateway to the Internet. There are people who think

Google disadvantages them and their business.

Brin: We were sued in one case I think and I believe it was dismissed.

People tend to get really upset when they used to have a big flow of

traffic from Google, then they don't. There's another set of people

who are getting that traffic. There's not a great deal of stability in

our search results. A site might be down when we crawl it, for

example. The more important issue is that we continue to develop our

algorithms and have a rapid development cycle. People can't

necessarily rely on search results remaining static.

Page: We've earned people's trust this way through the quality of the

search.

Mossberg: Do you think your average users understand why some results

are ranked higher than others?

Brin: The whole system is very complex. I couldn't tell you why in a

given set of results one thing is higher than another. I would not

recommend following those spams that promise to increase your search

result standings.

Mossberg: Have you got this figured out for the next few years?

Page: There's a lot we can do. I still think using Google's terrible.

There's still a huge number of things we can't answer. There's

probably something out there that explains every complex query, and

Google can't give you the exact right answer instantly.

Mossberg: (Asks about specialized searches and features, like

Froogle.)

Brin: Most of the products we develop are suggestions by enthusiastic

researchers. True of Google News, true of Froogle. We encourage this,

and ultimately it's highly motivated people on our teams who conceive

these things. You look at our track record on things we planned to

launch that were successful, and the correlation is pretty weak.

Page: Innovation in general is like this. You try a lot of things,

some of them work out really well.

Brin: We have a list of that we call the Top 100, research projects in

development. It's really more like 200. Some people work on them

whether we want them to or not. (Audience laughs.)

Mossberg: It sounds like summer camp.

Brin: People create much better things when they're inspired and feel

they have ownership, it's what they want to do.

Mossberg: Let's talk about browsing. This doesn't just mean the Web,

but the way you interact with the PC, search as more of a metaphor

than it has been. Is the kind of thing you do at Google something that

could unify all this?

Page: No, Google works best on a large universe of data. With smaller

universes, something like the Apple Music Store, you may not even need

search. It will be nice to have better search functionality for your

own information, but software can provide other alternatives.

Mossberg: What about searching other documents: PDFs, images.

AlltheWeb includes music and videos. Will there be a way to use Google

to search things that are not on the public Web?

Brin: You can now throw away all your junk mail catalogs because you

can search for and browse them on Google. Regarding music and video,

there are legal issues, issues with the results really working, issues

with player compatibility; generally, usability issues beyond search

that make these problematic.

Page: We do have a fair amount of influence now. We try to consider

what it means to make all this available.

Audience Questions for Brin and Page

Audience member: Do you help users with queries on things like health

care issues to narrow down their results?

Brin: There are great sites about diabetes, and we don't have the

ability to give you better information than they can. In the future,

who knows?

Audience member: Why search? Why does it work? Page: It was obvious

for us because we didn't really want to form a company. There were

10,000 searches a day at Stanford on Google, it was working and

growing. We didn't fully understand what would happen, but had strong

indications.

Audience member: Google vs. bookmarks. Why don't you let people put

their bookmarks on your home page? You'd do serious damage to Yahoo

and AOL.

Page: Would you like a job? (Good laugh from audience.)

Same audience member: As one of the two unemployed people here, yes!

(More laughs)

Brin: This is the kind of thing people work on on the Top 100 list. It

sounds like a good idea but would need to be tested.

Esther Dyson: Asks about Google's purchase of Pyra: what have you

discovered, been surprised by, found out?

Brin: We've let those guys go at it, continue to develop their

product. They have so many ideas on their own, and there's a whole

industry of third party applications to tack onto Blogger. I'm just

trying to make sure we don't add too much "value!" (Big laugh.)

Audience member: What are the implications of being able to find just

about anything on Google?

Brin: Larry told me this some time ago: people's interests are, and

have become, esoteric and diverse. The wealth of information has

enabled people to specialize in much narrower interests. It makes it

easier for someone to specialize in a localized sphere of knowledge.

Page: I've been waiting for them to start teaching searching,

alongside spelling, in school.

posted by Denise at 9:02 PM

briefing in progress | link

It's Later Than I Think

I must remember to ask Jason Shellen if there's a way to tweak the

Blogger time stamp feature for specific posts. I don't want to shift

the whole blog to EDT just because I'm here for a few days. Speaking

of Jason, I've been cracking up at his comments about answering

lunch-line tech support questions for all the blogging Googlers. He

promises more about their internal version of Blogger, Blogger in

Google (B.I.G.), at this very conference.

posted by Denise at 6:49 PM

briefing in progress | link

Plane Reading

Spotted in transit--

From Inc. Magazine:

"Blogging for Dollars:" "Blogs have long been popular with mopey teens

looking to share their angst and political pundits eager for an online

soapbox. But they are increasingly being put to commercial use by

entrepreneurs."

"What's Next: Don't Get Brobecked:" "[D]o what you should have done

all along--manage your lawyer the way you manage any supplier

relationship, something few companies without in-house counsel ever

do." And (imagine my delight at 30,000 feet) this, and more, from Rick

Klau: "Many firms had their best year ever in 2001 or even 2002,

despite the recession, but that is just because the legal business is

slower to be affected by the economy. Even after client businesses

sour, there is still plenty of legal work to be done cleaning up the

mess. But eventually that work is finished and if the economy doesn't

pick up, then the lawyers are in trouble."

From Newsweek:

Speaking of Rick, he was the first person to turn me on to Howard Dean

last summer. Now Newsweek says of the candidate, "Dean's insurgency

may falter, but he's already made history: the first Web-launched

candidate to go mainstream in the era of BlackBerry and Bluetooth."

("Spinning a New Web.")

I didn't read the whole flight, spent most of it cleaning up D notes,

actually. Will have Semel, Brin, Page, Leonsis and Cuban posted as

soon as I rip through some room service.

posted by Denise at 6:25 PM

briefing in progress | link

Greetings From Boston


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